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超级富豪减少奢侈品消费

2008-10-30
奢侈品消费
超级富豪减少奢侈品消费
SUPER-RICH TIGHTEN PURSE STRINGS ON LUXURY GOODS
By Jenny Wiggins and Vincent Boland 2008-10-30
作者:英国《金融时报》珍妮•威金斯(Jenny Wiggins)、文森特•博兰(Vincent Boland) 2008-10-30
When cracks in the financial and housing markets first started to appear last year, the world's wealthiest people remained relatively immune, and continued to spend lavishly on the playthings of the rich: sports cars, diamond necklaces and £650 (,000) mobile phones.

But the severity of this year's collapse in global financial markets has reached even the super-rich, ending the spending boom that has more than doubled the size of the global luxury goods market during the past decade.

“2009 will be the first year when real consumption of luxury goods will diminish,” says Claudia D'Arpizio, a partner in the Milan office of consultancy Bain & Co, which recently completed a global study of the luxury market. “We expect a weak fourth quarter and a weak Christmas.”

Although global sales of luxury goods will still hit a record 175bn (8.7bn) this year, Bain expects them to drop to between 163bn and 170bn next year.

Even the very wealthy have to curtail their expenditure when the value of their stock portfolios decline.

Milton Pedraza, chief executive of the Luxury Institute, a research group that tracks the luxury market, says the financial crisis has had a “paralysing effect” on the US luxury market (the world's biggest single luxury market) during the past few months, and sales were likely to fall more sharply than they did in the past two recessions.

“Jets, jewellery or apparel – everyone has seen declines,” he says. “Consumers are going back to classics and price is very important.”

During the past decade, the global market for luxury goods has exploded as incomes have risen – particularly in emerging markets such as Russia and China, where many consumers have been able to afford Italian handbags and dresses as well as champagne and Ferraris for the first time.

Meanwhile, traditional luxury goods brands, including Bulgari and Cartier, created more affordable product lines to reach a bigger group of customers. Dolce & Gabbana came up with D&G, and Giorgio Armani developed Emporio Armani and Armani Jeans.

But as consumer confidence drops sharply around the world, particularly in western markets such as the US and Europe, people are becoming more cautious with their money, even in newly wealthy emerging markets where sales are slowing rather than collapsing altogether.

Mercury, a Russian luxury goods group owning Moscow stores for brands such as Gucci, Prada and Rolex, as well as showrooms for Ferrari, Maserati and Bentley, is among the companies reporting a downturn in sales.

Paola Pecciarini, a luxury goods analyst at Banca Leonardo in Milan, warns the luxury industry faces “a very tough few years, not just a few quarters” with no resurgence in demand before 2010 at the earliest.

“The super-rich will certainly continue to buy, but their spending will almost certainly slow down.”

Robert Polet, the chief executive of Italian fashion label Gucci, has acknowledged the changing environment, recently telling the Italian newspaper La Republica: “Big spenders are now buying three handbags where they might once have bought four.”

Sales of fashionable clothing have been particularly poor, according to Luca Solca, luxury goods analyst at Bernstein Research, adding that orders for womenswear were weak at this summer's Milan fashion shows, particularly from Russia (a strong buyer during the past five years).

“High-end apparel seems to be on the back foot,” Mr Solca says.

German womenswear brand Escada this week complained of a “persistent worsening” in the clothing market as it said it would make a loss in the 2007-08 fiscal year.
去年,当金融和住宅市场危机初现时,全球最富有的人相对没有受到影响,他们继续大肆购买跑车、钻石项链和售价650英镑(合1000美元)的手机等富人的玩具。

但今年全球金融市场的崩溃如此严重,甚至已影响到超级富豪,结束了在过去10年间导致全球奢侈品市场规模扩大超过一倍的消费热潮。

咨询公司贝恩(Bain & Co)米兰办事处合伙人克劳迪亚•达皮奇奥(Claudia D'Arpizio)表示:“2009年将是奢侈品实际消费下降的第一年,我们预计第四季度和圣诞节销售将表现疲软。”贝恩最近完成了对全球奢侈品市场的调研。

尽管全球奢侈品销售额今年仍将达到创纪录的1750亿英镑(合2817亿美元),但贝恩预计,明年的销售额将降至1630亿至1700亿英镑之间。

当股票投资组合价值下跌时,即使非常富有的人也不得不减少支出。

奢侈品市场研究机构Luxury Institute首席执行官米尔顿•佩德拉萨(Milton Pedraza)称,过去几个月,金融危机对美国奢侈品市场(全球最大的单一奢侈品市场)产生了“瘫痪效应”,销售额的下降可能比前两次衰退更为严重。

“喷气式飞机、珠宝和服装——每样奢侈品的销量都在下降,”佩德拉萨称。“消费者开始回归经典,价格非常重要。”

过去10年,由于收入增加,全球奢侈品市场出现爆炸式增长——尤其是在俄罗斯和中国等新兴市场,那里的许多消费者第一次能够买得起意大利手包和服饰,还有香槟和法拉利跑车。

同时,包括宝格丽(Bulgari)和卡地亚(Cartier)在内的传统奢侈品品牌,生产了更多价格能够接受的产品,以扩大消费群体。杜嘉班纳(Dolce & Gabbana)推出了D&G,阿曼尼公司(Giorgio Armani)推出了依保罗•阿曼尼(Emporio Armani)和阿曼尼牛仔(Armani Jeans)。

但随着全球——尤其是美国和欧洲等西方市场——消费者信心大幅下降,人们花钱更加谨慎,即使在新富的新兴市场也是如此——那里的销售有所放缓,但没有完全崩溃。

俄罗斯奢侈品集团Mercury也是公布销售收入下降的公司之一。该公司在莫斯科拥有古姿(Gucci)、普拉达(Prada)和劳力士(Rolex)等品牌专卖店,还有法拉利(Ferrari)、玛莎拉蒂(Maserati)和宾利(Bentley)的展厅。

Banca Leonardo驻米兰奢侈品分析师保拉•佩恰里尼(Paola Pecciarini)警告称,奢侈品行业“未来几年的形势都会非常严峻,而不仅仅是几个季度”,至少在2010年之前需求不会回升。

“超级富豪当然会继续消费,但几乎可以肯定,他们的支出会慢下来。”

意大利时尚品牌古姿的首席执行官罗伯特•波莱(Robert Polet)承认,环境正在发生改变。他最近告诉意大利报纸《共和国报》(La Republica):“那些挥金如土的人以前可能会买4个手袋,但现在只买3个。”

伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)奢侈品分析师卢卡•索尔卡(Luca Solca)表示,时尚服装的销售尤其凄惨。她补充表示,今年夏季米兰时装展的女装订单表现疲弱——特别是来自过去5年作为大买家的俄罗斯的订单。

索尔卡表示:“高端服装似乎处于不利地位。”

德国女装品牌爱斯卡达(Escada)本周抱怨服装市场的“持续恶化”,并表示公司在2007-08财年将发生亏损。

市场低迷给爱斯卡达造成了严重的财务损失:该公司股价过去一周大跌19%,过去6个月的累积跌幅超过60%。

分析师预计,爱斯卡达直到2010-11财年才会重新盈利。

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